A study by the Climate & Development Initiative indicates that the country will not comply with the goals in the Paris Agreement if the rate of deforestation and current environmental policies are maintained

The first round of elections has ended, and with it there is the certainty of a second round for the presidential election. Before the voting began, the Climate & Development Initiative published a study entitled Continuity Scenario. This projects the emission of up to 137% more greenhouse gases than the country has committed to in the Paris Agreement by 2030, if the next government maintains the current environmental and climate policies. Presented simultaneously in Rio de Janeiro, Paris and New York, the document shows that the maintenance of the growth rate of the emissions in Brazil for the next eight years offers a “checkmate” to the Paris Agreement.

For Ana Toni, the most negative scenario, of the maintenance of the growth rate of the carbon emissions by Brazil for eight years, would represent “a checkmate in the Paris Agreement, because no other country has dared not to comply so much with the goals” to which it has committed before the international community. Ana Toni highlighted that deforestation is the great villain. “If we do not control deforestation, we have no chance of controlling the emissions,” she added.

In the Continuity Scenario, the Amazon would reach about 25% deforestation, which is a limit rate indicated by experts as a point of no return for the savannization of the largest tropical forest in the world.

Other sectors were also assessed, as explained by Walter Figueiredo, director of Tanaloa. “The Continuity Scenario shows that there is a connection between reducing emissions and improving the quality of life for people. We see in this scenario, for example, the insistence of the maintenance of fossil fuel as the main driver of the transport matrix in Brazil.”

Two scenarios were studied: the growth of deforestation following the rate of the period 2018-2021 in the Amazon, Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes and stabilizing in 2026; and the deforestation growing at the same rate until 2030. In both, the calculations show that the public policies adopted between 2019 and 2022 and the lack of effective actions lead to the growth of GHG emissions.

Credit: Tanaloa Disclosure / Walter Figueiredo, of Tanaloa, and Ana Toni, of iCS

Ana Toni adds: “The study shows that Brazil needs another trajectory of decarbonization. Whether to save the Amazon, or to comply with our own goals and to comply with our own laws. This is fundamental for any government that wins the current election in 2022. In recent years, we have not seen any specific signs of changes in the environmental policies in practice. We already have the instruments. Ibama, ICMBio, and the laws already exist. There is already much that could be being done. There is no need to invent anything new. Neither the laws nor the instruments that we have today are being implemented.”

The study was developed by researchers from the Center of Integrated Studies for the Environment and Climate Change (Climate Center), and the Alberto Luiz Coimbra Institute of Post-Graduation and Research in Engineering (Coppe), at UFRJ.

Read the full study here.

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