The Carbon Transparency Initiative (CTI) is a project of the ClimateWorks Foundation – an iCS funder – that generates Current Development Scenarios based on policies, decarbonization trends and energy-related investments in eight sectors: aviation and maritime industries; energy; transportation; oil & gas; construction; industry; waste; and agriculture. After having developed models that identify possible progress in relation to national emission reduction targets in the United States, China, India, Mexico and the European Union, CTI has now arrived in Brazil, with the support of Clima e Sociedade.

Together with organizations such as COPPE/UFRJ, Observatório do Clima and Instituto Escolhas, many of which are iCS grantees, the initiative maps the national capacity to construct greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and integrates the Brazilian indicators to the project. The models used by the CTI rely on a methodology based on fundamental analyzes of a small number of drivers, which shape emission trends and portray the progress towards building a low-carbon economy.

“I am very happy that Brazil is now joining the CTI. It is very important that we be able to compare the Brazilian decarbonization efforts against those of other countries, using the same methodology. The CTI is a platform that our funders use and understand and it is able to relay complex issues in simple way. The CTI is also an important forum for the exchange of information with other international groups that are calculating future emissions. The platform in Brazil was developed with our partners from SEEG, who are in charge of the impressive work of monitoring emissions by sectors and states and are now developing a methodology to estimate future emissions. SEEG and CTI are open platforms, geared not only towards the scientific community, but also able to be used and appropriated as a tool by civil society and the media. With the work of these and other organizations, we will be better able to monitor the Brazilian policies that will positively or negatively influence future national emissions”, says Ana Toni, the Executive Director of Clima e Sociedade.

During a webinar to present the first results of the CTI in Brazil, Surabi Menon, Senior Director, Advisory & Research of ClimateWorks, made a presentation about the Carbon Transparency Initiative and the importance of maintaining the same methodology of analysis and construction of future scenarios of emission reduction.

The mapping of national emissions was the subject of the presentation given by Tasso Azevedo of SEEG (Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation System) and by Seth Monteith, of CW. The 4.0 edition of the system covers the period from 1970 to 2050 and includes information from all sectors and more than 600 emission sources. With the support of the CTI, it was possible to carry out an estimated projection of emissions by sector until 2030, based on the analysis and projection data of the CTI relating to other geographical locations. There are some difficulties, however, associated with the estimation of emissions from Land Use, which has the capacity to either keep emissions at a constant level or to generate negative emissions.

According to Seth Monteith, the Carbon Transparency Initiative was developed as a tool capable of comparing different levels of an economy and different geographic areas of countries and regions. Apart from emissions from deforestation, the Brazilian profile is lower than those of the United States, China, India and the European Union – but, unlike the others, the Brazilian profile has been facing an upward trend.

One of the highlights of the studies deals with the importance of energy efficiency as a vector of maintenance of the increase in the global average temperature of the planet below 2 degrees Celsius. While other countries and regions are developing efficiency measures and electric vehicles, Brazil owes much of its low emissions in the transportation sector to the intensive use of biofuel.

David Tsai and Marcelo dos Santos Cremer, both from IEMA, discussed the current scenario and the projections in the energy and industry sectors. The trend shows a significant increase in emissions from transportation, industry and oil & gas.

“It’s great to have the ability to compare Brazil’s emissions with those of other countries and to analyze all sectors. The country has already lost a lot of money with energy inefficiency, and is moving towards a Business as Usual model in terms of energy. In the case of transportation, our focus is on passengers, and on the need to create a new law to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the sector”, concludes Ana Toni.