The National Platform for Electric Mobility (PNME) held a debate about the importance of scenario studies in the discussion of public policies for the electrification of bus fleets. During the event, the study “Evaluation of Prospective Scenarios for Bus Electrification in Brazil” was launched, which was developed by the consultancy Addax for the PNME. “The initial idea of this study was to understand and make realistic the factors that can really influence the preparation of public policies for the electrification of buses,” said Marília Neves, the technical coordinator of the PNME.
In order to achieve this, the methodology for the projection of the urban bus fleet, the scenario of technological migration and the calculation of the estimated economic and financial impacts were discussed. Chapter 1 presents this methodology by briefly resuming and illustrating its application. The report next shows the formulations that have been prepared regarding the determinant variables identified for the electrification, and how they influence the adoption of the electrification technology in the national bus fleet.
Chapter 3, in turn, discusses the investment curve, the cost parameters and regulatory assumptions, arriving at the size of the potential migration for each formulated scenario and the consequent economic and financial impacts are presented in Chapter 4. Finally, a critical diagnosis is made of the obtained results through sensitivity analyses to critical variables, together with a proposal of guidelines for public policies at the federal level.