The ‘mutirão’ for the success of COP30

One way to create more ambitious commitments to reduce emissions and raise funds to finance action involves deepening carbon pricing mechanisms

COP30, which will be held in November in Belém do Pará, will mark 20 years since the Kyoto Protocol came into force and 10 years since the Paris Agreement. In addition to the recognized importance of these agreements, it is known that COP30 faces enormous challenges in promoting the “turnaround” called for in the first letter from its designated president, Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago. So far, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have fallen far short of what is needed. Therefore, the “mutirão” (collective effort in Portuguese) proposed by the designated president should reinforce mechanisms already in place in the Paris Agreement for carbon pricing and seek to encourage the largest GHG emitters to present their time-based strategies for reducing emissions in all sectors of the economy in the next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). 

This “turnaround” will only happen if there is a deep engagement of member governments, the private sector and all layers that make up society. This would be a true collective effort to “put the house in order”, recognizing necessary adjustments and strengthening the pillars to ensure that our planet has a trajectory compatible with the sustainability of human life and future generations, with economic and social development. 

But how? In practice, you start with a “collective effort” that is supported by detailed planning of materials and methods, and that aims to best serve the collective. In general, the collective efforts of construction work end with the closing of the roof, a moment that, in popular tradition, is celebrated with a “ridge party”. 

Let us look at the foundations of this construction around the planet and its inhabitants. Science has long warned that human activities, especially the exploration and use of fossil fuels, are profoundly altering the Earth’s climate. Without rapid, ambitious and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, it may already be impossible to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C by the end of the century, the long-term goal set in the Paris Agreement. 

According to the most recent data provided by member countries, in billions of tons of greenhouse gases, the largest emissions occurred in China (13.0), the United States (5.5), the European Union (3.1), India (2.4), Brazil (2.0), Indonesia (1.4) and Japan (1.1). As expected, responsibility for current emissions and, consequently, their reductions, is concentrated in the G20 countries. And most of these emissions are concentrated in the energy sector, including electricity generation, transport and buildings. It is important to note that the European Union reduced, from 1990 to 2022, 32.6% of its total GHG emissions, while the United States reduced only 1.3%.  

The “collective effort” is more necessary than ever with the announced withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement, a betrayal of the global effort against global warming and which jeopardizes the rapid transition to a decarbonized and more sustainable global economy. In addition to the betrayal, the announcement by the United States of increased exploration and burning of fossil fuels requires that the countries that signed the Paris Agreement develop a new plan and advance in the search for new materials and methods to ensure that construction remains solid. 

Of course, planning involves the need for significant financial resources. In this sense, the current and designated presidencies of COPs 29 and 30 (Azerbaijan and Brazil) were asked to present a “road map” that summarizes how to increase climate finance for mitigation and adaptation actions in developing countries, by US$ 1.3 trillion annually. 

Since COP29, building a “road map” has become much more challenging: many countries are increasing their defense budgets, as spending on this sector is expected to approach US$3 trillion annually by the end of the decade. Unfortunately, the “war” against global warming has not been given the same priority and cannot be won with military weapons. And the new “war,” the trade/tariff war initiated by the new US administration, will make the world more unequal and poorer, negatively affecting tax revenues. 

Despite this, the COP presidency and the Brazilian government can take advantage of opportunities such as Brazil’s presidency of the BRICS this year and its qualified participation in the G20. These groups bring together countries responsible for more than 35% and 60% of current global GHG emissions, respectively. Any statements by their member governments, particularly the largest emitters, regarding a significant increase in their ambitions will have a positive and optimistic effect on COP30. 

The UN Global Stocktaking Report, which monitors and assesses the implementation of targets announced every five years by member countries in their Nationally Determined Contributions, already indicated in 2023 the need to accelerate actions, in this critical decade, to abandon the use of fossil fuels in energy systems in a fair, orderly and equitable manner. It would be important for the largest emitters to immediately commit to emission reduction targets, with CO2 neutrality close to 2050, with intermediate milestones in 2035, 2040 and 2045. 

One way to create more ambitious commitments to reduce GHG emissions while also raising funds to finance mitigation and adaptation actions involves strengthening carbon pricing mechanisms. Until 2004, they were virtually nonexistent. In 2015, when the Paris Agreement was signed, they already accounted for around 12% of global greenhouse gas emissions. By 2023, this percentage had reached 24%. However, the amounts charged are still well below the recommended range for limiting global warming: US$67 to US$127 in 2030 per ton of CO2 equivalent to limit warming to 2°C by mid-century; to limit it to 1.5°C, the amounts would be even higher, between US$226 and US$385. 

One thing is certain: with the “collective effort” proposed by Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, we can be hopeful that the window to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement will not close, ensuring a more equitable and fair world. It is essential that the largest emitters commit to promoting significant cuts in their emissions and guaranteeing financial support to developing countries on the scale that is necessary. Only in this way will we one day be able to celebrate our “ridge party.” 

Thelma Krug is the vice-president of the IPCC 2015-2023.
Paulo Artaxo is the coordinator of CEAS USP and a member of the IPCC. 
Jean Ometto is a senior researcher at INPE and a member of the IPCC. 
Bráulio Borges is an economist at LCA and a researcher at FGV-Ibre. 
Roberto Kishinami is a senior specialist at iCS.
Eduardo Assad is a researcher at FGV/GV Agro.

This article was originally published in Valor Econômico.